As Americans vote for a new leader Tuesday, the Ontario government says it’s focused on maintaining good relations with its largest trading partner — though that may be easier said than done, depending on who wins.
The results of the U.S. presidential election, a fraught race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, could have major impacts on Ontario trade costs.
Trump has promised a minimum tariff of 10 per cent on all imports entering the US, while experts have told CBC News that Harris would likely maintain a status quo that mostly embraces free trade and open borders.
On Monday, Premier Doug Ford said Ontario is ready to work with whichever administration takes over the White House in January.
“As Americans prepare to vote in this week’s elections, it’s more important than ever to preserve and build on our longstanding ties of friendship, trade and co-operation that unite Canada and the United States,” Ford said in a statement Monday.
“In the lead-up to this week’s elections, our government has been hard at work strengthening ties and establishing new relationships with government officials at the federal, state and local levels,” he added.
Ontario one of U.S.’s biggest trading partners
In 2023, trade between Ontario and the U.S. totalled about $493 billion, according to the province’s fall economic statement. The province was the top source of exports in the world for 17 states, exporting $52.9 billion in goods to neighbouring Michigan alone.
The province has signed economic agreements to increase trade with four individual states since last year — Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, Illinois — along with an agreement with the District of Columbia.
Ford has urged the federal government to “remain aligned” with U.S. trade policy, commending Ottawa for matching American tariffs on certain Chinese imports.
“Above all, we must avoid falling into a ‘Buy Canada’ or ‘Buy America’ mindset that would jeopardize our existing trading relationship and instead adopt a ‘Buy Can-Am’ mindset that creates new jobs and opportunities for workers and businesses on both sides of the border,” Ford said in Monday’s statement.
Chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with Minister of International Trade Mary Ng on how Ottawa is preparing for the next U.S. president, what meetings are taking place in Washington and how business and trade could be impacted here. Plus, a conversation with U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen about the upcoming election, including whether he is surprised the race is so close, and his thoughts on the U.S.-Canada relationship.
Ford has remained neutral during the current U.S. campaign. In the past, he has been supportive of Trump in the past, predicting in 2016 that Trump’s persona as a political outsider would win him that election. At the time, Ford said that Trump reminded him of his brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford.
Opposition parties have been less diplomatic.
The Ontario Liberal Party has been critical of Ford’s past support, saying Ford and Trump were “two sides of the same coin” in posts on social media Monday. MLA John Fraser told reporters Monday that he was hoping for a Harris presidency.
“We’re all concerned about protectionism,” he said.
Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles didn’t comment on Ford’s opinion of the candidates, but said Ontario would be better off if Harris won.
“I’m worried for all of us if Trump wins,” she told reporters Monday, emphasizing his “divisive” rhetoric. “I’m worried for Canada because I think it will have a significant impact on trade.”
Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement up for review in 2026
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and more than $3.6 billion in goods and services cross the border daily.
No matter who wins Tuesday’s election, the federal government will have to prepare for 2026, when the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement is up for review and renewal.
Louise Blais, a former Canadian ambassador to the UN, says protectionism has been growing in the U.S. in recent years and Ford and Ottawa will face challenges regardless of who wins. But she says Canada and Ontario have their own bargaining chips to maintain what she calls Canada’s most important relationship.
“This is a message we try to bring to our American friends,” she said. “Not only are we your number one customer, our exports to you … makes you more competitive.”
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, speaking a day ahead of the presidential election, urged Canadians to remember that the U.S. depends on Canada in ‘really significant ways’ and stressed that the federal government is ‘absolutely confident’ it will be able to work with whoever Americans elect.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Monday that Canada is well-positioned for any result in Tuesday’s American election.
“Remember that our country is strong and that America depends on us in really significant ways,” Freeland said.
“Our government has good relationships with the Democrats, we have good relationships with the Republicans, we are absolutely confident we will be able to work effectively with whomever the American people elect. I’m so certain of that.”
Ford government ready to retaliate if necessary
At a meeting of Canada’s premiers in June, Ford said he had used protectionist language in the past, telling U.S. governors to “Buy Ontario,” but he had changed to a buy North America approach.
“We need each other, to be very frank,” he said in June.
The province will start a marketing push in January to remind the new U.S. government of the importance of their trade relationship, says Vic Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development.
However, should the new government begin to play hardball on trade, Fedeli says the province will respond.
“We’ll be looking at the results state by state, jurisdiction by jurisdiction. There are certain places we buy very specific products from and if they’re going to put tariffs, we’re going to need a list of, sadly, retaliatory tariffs,” he said, adding that has been an effective strategy in the past.
But tarrifs would be tough on Ontario businesses, according to Stephen Lund, CEO of Toronto Global, a government-funded agency that works to attract international business to the Toronto area. Lund says it’s up to Canada and Ontario to remind Americans that tariffs would be tough on them too, increasing the price of imported goods at a time where the cost of living is high.
“We have to make sure that people in the U.S. know just how important this relationship is,” Lund said. “Tariffs, it’s a dead-end game.”