PCs and Liberals trade blows in attack ads as Ontario election speculation swirls

While MPPs were away from the provincial legislature and in their communities last week, the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals were busy rolling out advertisements taking shots at each others’ leaders, Doug Ford and Bonnie Crombie.

Ontario’s next official election isn’t scheduled until 2026, but speculation about an early call has been heating up all fall. And both parties are already telling voters what’s wrong with the other, while the Opposition NDP has been reintroducing its leader to Ontarians in a fall ad campaign that has since ended.

A video posted online by the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party on Tuesday opens with a static-filled TV against a dark background, with Bonnie Crombie on the screen. It proceeds to attack the former mayor of Mississauga on her record, starting with an accusation that she supports the carbon tax.

A day later, the Liberals were ready with a return. In a video that spoofs the opening credits of the popular sitcom It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Ford is seen during a 2018 news conference, promising a tax cut for the middle class. The premier is then repeatedly interrupted by a loud buzzer while the words “never happened” flash on the screen. 

Jacob Robbins-Kanter, an associate professor at Bishop’s University who researches political communication, said attack ads work by tapping into people’s fears. 

“Whether it’s fear for our economic security, our physical security — so ads that might focus on crime or economic crisis,” said Robbins-Kanter. “These are just generally seen as more memorable and more effective often than a positive message.”

He thinks all signs point to a winter election, meant to get voters to the ballot box before a federal contest. The premier has been asked about an early election call at media availabilities across the province but he has yet to confirm any rumours.

Ford’s persona established with voters, Crombie’s less so

Randy Besco, a political scientist who teaches at the University of Toronto, said attack ads are more effective when targeted at a politician who voters aren’t familiar with.

“Ford has been around a long time, voters know about him. They’ve already formed impressions of him,” said Besco. “It’s really hard for ads to change the impressions of a well-established politician.” 

Ford has repeatedly linked Crombie to the federal carbon tax — something Besco said may be effective among voters who don’t pay much attention to politics and are unsure which level of government is responsible for what.

Late in the week, Ford tried to build on his everyman persona with a new advertisement published on social media, which the Conservatives plan to roll out on TV as well. 

In the ad, Ford is seen driving down a nondescript street, while describing in voiceover how he’s always speaking with Ontarians over the phone about their concerns. He says one of those concerns is traffic, before promising never to add a road toll or build a bike lane on a main street “unlike Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals.”

Andrew Brander, a Toronto-based strategist who worked in the Stephen Harper government, said the fact that Crombie is really just beginning to advertise now speaks to the two parties’ financial resources.

“Bonnie Crombie’s been leader for coming up on a year now. And this is really the first real public attempt we’re seeing of her to try to define the premier,” Brander said of the Liberal attack ads. “She’s already been defined by the PCs through this very aggressive series of advertising campaigns.” 

NDP ads so far focus on Marit Stiles

On Friday, the Liberals released another attack ad that spliced together news coverage of Ford’s Greenbelt scandal, the addition of Service Ontario locations to Staples stores and the millions of dollars being paid to the Beer Store.

Brander said Ford’s recent ad where he drives down the street is an attempt to reinforce a brand the Liberals are trying to tarnish through their own attack ads, which end with a mock campaign sign that says “Doug Ford, for his friends.”

Meanwhile this fall the NDP released a more positive ad that aired on some streaming services. The spot, with a tagline of “It’s Marit,” highlights the party’s leader Marit Stiles as a compassionate leader eager to help Ontarians. 

But Mélanie Richer, a principal for Earnscliffe Strategies and former press secretary for Jagmeet Singh, says the NDP may need to shift to ads that take aim at Ford to ensure they’re not forgotten as an option to lead the province. 

“What I think the NDP needs to do this time around is to make it very clear pre-election that they are the ones that are beating Ford,” Richer said.

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