One week into Ontario’s four-week election campaign, the dominant issue by far is U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian exports.
In his role as the incumbent premier, Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford was able to trigger a series of provincial government actions in response to the tariffs, boosting his re-election prospects in a way that’s unavailable to his rivals.
Over the space of 24 hours, Ford ordered U.S. liquor withdrawn from the LCBO, cancelled the $92-million contract his government gave Elon Musk’s SpaceX to bring satellite internet to 15,000 rural homes and banned U.S. companies from competing for provincial government procurement.
Ford then paused all those measures Monday afternoon after Trump agreed to a 30-day reprieve on tariffs.
These moves – along with multiple appearances on U.S. TV networks – have given a spotlight to Ford that helps the PC campaign, says Christopher Cochrane, associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto Scarborough.
“It’s obvious to any neutral observer calling the election in the middle of the tariff threat was a political move designed to benefit his party,” Cochrane said in an interview.
After speaking to reporters on Monday, PC Party Leader Doug Ford said he was initially “happy” Donald Trump won the U.S. election until he threatened Canada with hefty tariffs.
“The media focus and the focus of Ontarians [during the election] isn’t going to be on what Doug Ford’s government did or didn’t get done in the past couple of years. It’s obviously going to be on Trump and the tariffs,” said Cochrane.
The leaders of the Ontario NDP and Ontario Liberal Party tried to counter Ford by unveiling their own campaign pledges Monday as to how they would respond to tariffs if elected.
NDP vows to ‘tariff-proof’ Ontario
NDP Leader Marit Stiles chose the Canadian Automotive Museum in Oshawa as the venue for her announcement.
“Good jobs shouldn’t just be a part of our history. They should be a part of Ontario’s future,” Stiles told the gathering.
The NDP’s plan to respond to tariffs aims to protect jobs with two main thrusts: direct financial support in the short term to trade-exposed industries such as the auto sector and an effort to find new markets for Ontario-made products in the long-term.
“As premier, I will defend each and every single job in this province,” Stiles said. “We will fight back as part of a strong Team Canada and we will get to work building a tariff-proof Ontario for the years ahead.”
Stiles also promises an NDP government would create a “Buy Ontario” campaign to promote goods made in the province and would direct government-funded agencies to procure locally.
Other measures listed in the party’s news release announcing the plan include a task force on the economy, investing in retraining programs and speeding up infrastructure projects to create jobs.
The NDP did not provide any dollar figures for how much the measures would cost.
Liberals pledge cheaper borrowing for business
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie unveiled her tariff response plan at the Kitchener-Waterloo Chamber of Commerce.
The centrepiece of the Liberal plan is what Crombie called the Fight Tariffs Fund, giving businesses access to loans at lower-than-market interest rates.
Crombie told the audience the fund would reduce the cost to businesses of borrowing money.
“I certainly believe in further investment to protect us, to insulate us, to diversify our economy and create jobs,” Crombie said.
Other measures listed in the Liberal news release on the tariff response plan include excluding U.S. companies from procurement of provincial contracts, and working with other provinces to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers.
Some of the proposals the Liberals highlighted in their plan are campaign promises they made in prior months, before Trump threatened tariffs, that aren’t directly linked to cross-border trade, such as an income tax cut and removing the HST from home heating bills,
The Liberals did not provide the estimated cost of the Fight Tariffs Fund.
PCs promise to defer $10B in business taxes
By contrast, the tariff-related campaign promises that Ford’s Progressive Conservatives made on Monday include specific dollar figures, and some rather large ones at that.
The biggest is to provide Ontario businesses with $10 billion in cash flow by deferring provincially administered taxes for six months.
The PC plan also includes $3 billion in payroll tax relief to small businesses and a $1 billion increase to Ontario’s existing $1.5 billion Skills Development Fund to support training in the skilled trades.
These measures are campaign promises that can’t be implemented until and unless the PCs win the election, recall the Legislature, bring in a budget and pass it.
“We need a mandate from the people of Ontario, not only to spend the billions of dollars to support the businesses, the families and the workers in Ontario, but we need a mandate for four years to go toe to toe with Donald Trump,” said Peter Bethlenfalvy, the PC candidate for Pickering-Uxbridge, at the campaign event to unveil the proposals.
He brushed aside a reporter’s question about whether the PCs delayed the government’s ability to put financial supports in place by calling the election.
“It’s not just about the next four weeks, it’s about the next four years, and actually it’s beyond that,” said Bethlenfalvy. “This is an opportunity for us to really grow our economy.”
While President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have been delayed for at least 30 days, some major party leaders in Ontario have already been strategizing on how they would address the tariffs. CBC’s Shawn Jeffords has the latest details.
The Green Party of Ontario released its tariff response plan in a news release on Friday.
It includes a Buy Ontario strategy for all public procurement, a tax credit to “unlock” investments stalled by the tariff threats and a “Protect Ontario Fund” to help businesses disproportionately impacted by tariffs.
The Greens did not provide figures of how much the measures would cost.
“We would aggressively look to diversify trade partnerships so we’re not as dependent on the U.S.,” Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said Monday at a campaign stop in Kitchener.
Parties’ tariff plans differ in focus, timing
Graham Dobbs, senior economist at The Dais, a public policy think tank at Toronto Metropolitan University, says while there is broad agreement among the parties about the need to counter the adverse effects of any U.S. tariffs, there are differences in focus and timing.
Dobbs says the PCs’ proposal to provide direct relief to businesses is “more immediate and sector-targeted” than their rivals are promising.
“The NDP (plan) actually tends to focus more on worker and employee rights as well as a longer term structural resilience strategy,” Dobbs said in an interview. “The Liberal Party is taking more of a balanced approach, mixing in economic supports as well as more broader social policy reforms.”
Dobbs says the corporate tax deferral proposed by the PCs and the small business tax cut proposed by the Liberals would particularly help businesses that are operating on thin profit margins.
He says it’s hard to judge how effective the parties’ proposed business support programs would be if tariffs are imposed for the long term.
Cochrane, the UTS political scientist, says when it comes to an external threat such as tariffs, where there’s broad consensus on the need to respond, it’s difficult for opposition parties to show what makes them distinct.
“In an election, you want the focus for the sake of the voters to be on exactly where there are differences between the parties, so voters have a choice,” Cochrane said.
All the parties are in favour of such measures as pulling U.S. alcohol from the LCBO, scrapping the Starlink contract and barring American companies from provincial procurement, leaving little room for difference in the party responses in ways that resonate with voters.
By calling the election in the midst of the tariff threat, Ford has virtually eliminated the opposition parties’ chances of getting any critical messages through on this dominant issue during the campaign, said Cochrane.
“It really looks like this is going to be a cakewalk for [Ford],” said Cochrane.