Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will table a motion of non-confidence next Tuesday to try and trigger a federal election.
The simply worded motion will read: “The House has no confidence in the prime minister and the government,” and will be up for debate before a final vote Wednesday.
The outcome of that vote is uncertain.
If it passes, Canadians will be headed to an election sometime this fall. If it fails, the Liberals will carry on.
Riding high in the polls, the Conservatives are dead set on going to an election as soon as possible to capitalize on their current popularity and get Prime Minister Justin Trudeau out of office.
The Liberals want to stave off an election so they can continue governing and pass legislation like the pharmacare bill, which is still before the Senate.
The Liberals have lost byelections in two safe seats over the last three months as Canadians grow weary of Team Trudeau, but the government has said it has more work to do.
Pierre Poilievre is calling on the NDP to announce their position on his non-confidence motion, which Conservatives intend to bring forward next week during their first opposition day of the fall sitting.
Under Canada’s Westminster system of parliamentary democracy, the prime minister and his government must enjoy the confidence of a majority of MPs to remain in office.
If the Liberal government wants to win those votes, Trudeau and his cabinet will have to convince at least one of the major opposition parties to vote their way.
NDP, Bloc could support Liberals
The Liberals hold 154 of the 338 seats in Parliament. To get to a majority of 169 MPs without Conservative support, the Liberals need either the NDP (25 MPs) or the Bloc Québécois (33 MPs) to stand with them. The Green Party holds just two seats and isn’t much of a factor in confidence votes.
The NDP has been coy about its intentions.
The party’s leader, Jagmeet Singh, said Tuesday the Liberals are “finished” and he told his caucus today that the Liberals and Trudeau “don’t deserve another chance.”
He has tried to present his party as the progressive alternative to Poilievre as the Liberals stumble.
Singh has been touting the party’s byelection win in an NDP stronghold in Winnipeg and a close third-place finish in a Montreal seat on Monday as a sign his team has some momentum.
But Singh hasn’t committed to bringing down the government as the earliest opportunity, only saying that his caucus will decide their non-confidence votes on a “case-by-case” basis.
A fall federal election would be tricky for the NDP, given their provincial counterparts in B.C. and Saskatchewan will also be contesting elections in the coming months.
Concurrent federal and provincial elections would be a drain on the party’s money and resources. Unlike other parties, the provincial and federal NDP wings are fused together as one party.
A byelection loss in the longtime Liberal stronghold of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun has put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau under pressure to defend his leadership as the government faces a potential non-confidence vote next week.
The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, have said they may prop up the governing Liberals in exchange for Trudeau meeting some of their policy demands.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet wants the government to increase pensions for seniors.
The Liberal government has already enacted a 10 per cent boost to Old Age Security (OAS) for pensioners over the age of 75.
The Bloc are demanding the increase be extended to all seniors over the age of 65 and they have a private member’s bill before Parliament to do just that.
That sort of boost would be costly for the federal treasury at a time when the Liberals are trying to rein in government to keep the national debt in check and hold on to Canada’s top credit rating.