Calling an early election could potentially puncture the Progressive Conservative’s strong lead in Ontario and “shake up” provincial politics.
The finding is part of a new poll completed by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada looking at how a general election before June 2026 could play out.
Ontario politics has been abuzz with talk of a potential snap election since the end of May when Ontario Premier Doug Ford repeatedly refused to rule one out. Opposition parties have struck election and policy committees, while fundraising efforts have kicked into high gear.
The new Liaison Strategies poll found that Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are polling a comfortable 11 points ahead of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals among decided and leaning voters. However, that lead would potentially shrink to five points if Ford called an early election.
The poll’s topline figures have the PCs at 33 per cent, the Liberals at 24 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent. Seventeen per cent of voters are undecided and four per cent would vote Green.
Removing undecided voters puts the PCs at 39 per cent, with the Liberals at 28 per cent and the NDP at 21.
If an election were to be called early, the PCs’ support could drop slightly to 30 per cent, with the Liberals unchanged at 24 per cent and the NDP up to 18 per cent. Undecided voters jump from 17 to 21 per cent.
“An early election would shake up Ontario politics,” David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said.
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In some key areas, Progressive Conservative support after an early election could take a hit.
“The regional shifts are most problematic for the PCs in Northern Ontario, Toronto and South Central Ontario (Hamilton and Niagara),” Valentin explained.
“In the North the PCs drop from first to third, in Toronto instead of trailing the Ontario Liberals by three points they would be behind by 10 points, and in South Central it would flip from a three-point lead for the PCs to a six-point lead for the Ontario NDP.”
Liaison Strategies is not the only group looking at the effects of election timing. Ford’s PCs have been running their own polling on the impact of a potential early election.
Campaign Research, the preferred polling firm of the Progressive Conservative Party, recently put that question to voters, asking whether they would support early election calls from both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier Doug Ford.
“Recently in the news, it was reported that in Ontario, Premier Doug Ford might call an early election instead of waiting until June 2026,” the poll obtained by Global News stated.
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“Do you agree or disagree that Doug Ford should call an election for 2025 instead of waiting until June 2026?” the poll asked.
Campaign Research then asked whether “Doug Ford should call an early election in early 2025” or whether the party should continue governing for the entire mandate.
Global News requested the results of that poll from both the premier’s office and Campaign Research but neither were willing to share them.
Ford, himself, addressed early election speculation with his caucus in early June, sources previously told Global News, suggesting the premier was looking to capitalize on the unpopularity of the federal Liberal Party while avoiding association with the federal Conservatives.
During a Progressive Conservative caucus briefing, Ford suggested that if Poilievre wins and tables a federal budget focused on spending cuts in the spring of 2026, the Progressive Conservative Party’s election chances could be impacted.
In the background, the Ontario Liberals have started the process of nominating candidates to be ready for a potential election. Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles has welcomed the idea of an early election, saying: “Bring it on.”
Valentin pointed out that the impact of an early election in Ontario has not been tested, with the last snap provincial election called in 1990, leading to an unexpected win for the Ontario NDP and Bob Rae.
“While the PCs would take an immediate hit in support, no one can predict what would happen during an election campaign,” he said.
“An early election would be a calculated risk and it’s very possible that PC voters that switch from PC to undecided would ultimately vote PC. It’s also possible the PCs would lose and a Liberal or NDP government would be elected.”
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