Cutting off power to 1.5 million Americans, restricting imports of U.S.-made alcohol, and limiting exports of Canadian critical minerals are among the list of measures the Ford government is considering if a looming trade war with the incoming Trump administration escalates in the new year.
On Wednesday, Premier Doug Ford, along with other Canadian premiers, met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to discuss the 25 per cent tariffs U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose on all Canadian imports.
After the meeting, Ford, who now believes there is a “100 per cent” chance that tariffs will be imposed in early January, offered a threat of his own: to “cut off” millions of American residents living in border states from Ontario’s energy exports.
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“It would turn off the lights to a million-and-a-half Americans,” Ford told Global News. “If they come at us we have to stand up for Canadians, we have to stand up for Ontarians.”
Sources outlined four potential measures:
- Restricting electricity exports to Michigan, New York State and Wisconsin
- Restricting exports of Canadian critical minerals required for electric vehicle batteries and supply chain
- Restricting U.S.-based companies from the Government of Ontario’s procurement process
- Restricting the LCBO, the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world, from buying American-made alcohol
Sources in the Ford government describe the measures as “escalation maneuvres” that are still being fleshed out.
One source added the government is “deadly serious” about the approach, even if the Premier offered personal reservations about cutting off the power supply to millions of American homes and businesses.
Some of the measures would also come at a cost the Ontario’s economy.
For example, the energy restriction policy, conceived by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, could cost the provincial treasury $400-$700 million in lost revenue.
Sources pointed out, however, the economic impact to Ontario’s southern neighbours is estimated to be in the billions. The Associated Press reported that about 85 per cent of electricity imported to the U.S. comes from Canadian generation.
Another source suggested the province could join forces with other provinces to maximize the pain.
“Shutting off its electricity is one thing,” the source said. “Ontario and Quebec shutting off electricity is entirely another thing.”