A rare winter election campaign is now officially underway after Ontario’s lieutenant-governor formally dissolved the legislature on Tuesday afternoon.
Over the next 28 days, the province’s major political parties and their leaders will tour Ontario pitching for votes and outlining their visions for the future.
The election was called by incumbent premier, and Progressive Conservative Leader, Doug Ford roughly 16 months ahead of schedule. Rumours of an early call have persisted for close to a year.
The start of the campaign Wednesday means the election itself will be held on Thursday, Feb. 27.
As party leaders battle it out for votes, here are some of the key issues to watch over the next month.
U.S. tariffs
For weeks, Ford has said he wants the election to be about the threat of potential tariffs from the United States.
President Donald Trump has threatened to levy 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods beginning on Feb. 1. Ford says that means he needs a fresh mandate from Ontario voters in order to potentially inject tens of billions into the economy to avoid job losses.
When tariffs failed to hit Canadian goods on the first day of Trump’s presidency, as he had once said they would, Ford’s message evolved to claim he needed a new mandate to deal with the entire presidency.
“This isn’t going to happen overnight, it may not happen Feb. 1, I’m sure something’s coming,” Ford said on Tuesday. “This is going to be a battle for the next four years and I want to make sure that I have a strong mandate to outlast President Trump.”
The Progressive Conservative Party will run its campaign under the slogan “protect Ontario,” a nod to its pitch that Ford is the best man to handle the potential economic fallout tariffs could bring.
Opposition parties, however, have all said they would support the government if it passes a stimulus package without the need for an election, which they have said is self-serving.
“While the people of Ontario are anxious about the grave threat of tariffs, Doug Ford is pursuing his own political gain,” Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles said in a statement Tuesday.
Early public opinion indicates the Progressive Conservatives are on solid ground fighting the election on the threat of U.S. tariffs, one polling expert said.
“When we look ahead to the next six months, the anticipation is as negative as we’ve seen it in the last five years and that includes during the height of COVID — meaning Ontarians are very concerned about the possible effects of tariffs,” Sean Simpson, senior vice-president with Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News.
“If Doug Ford is able to convince the citizens of this province that he’s the man to lead that charge, in the absence of a strong leader federally, then that could be a message that resonates with the electorate.”
Health care
The issue of health care is one that features in almost every Ontario election campaign and is a topic the opposition parties are keen to discuss over the next four weeks.
The Ontario Medical Association estimates there are 2.5 million people across the province who do not have access to a family doctor, while concerns of hallway health care continue through the province.
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For months, the Ontario Liberals, in particular, have been working to make health care a major ballot box question. One tactic used to draw attention to the issue in the legislature has been reading out how many people in each of Ontario’s 124 riding are without a family doctor.
In a pre-campaign statement, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said the public funds being spent to organize an election could have been put toward health care.
“He’s wasting $175 million on an early election instead of using it to fix our broken health care system and make your life more affordable,” Crombie said. “As Premier, I’ll deliver More For You by guaranteeing you’ll have a family doctor, cutting taxes on your paycheque and home heating, and building homes you can afford.”
In an attempt to cover themselves on the topic, on the eve of the election call, the Progressive Conservatives unveiled a $1.8-billion plan to attempt to connect every resident in the province to a primary health care team by 2029.
The Ontario NDP has also pushed to put health care at the heart of the debate, highlighting supply shortages for people receiving palliative and other care at home among the issues.
The issue of housing, and specifically Ontario’s housing crisis, was a central plank in the 2022 election campaign.
Ford and the PCs ran under the promise of building 1.5 million new homes by 2031 — a number recommended by the province’s housing affordability task force.
Ford promised during the 2022 campaign to lower the cost of housing.
In October 2022, the average one-bedroom rental in Ontario was $1,474, according to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Association. It was $1,666 in October 2024.
Over the past legislative session, however, the Ford government has failed to meet its housing targets every single year. The Progressive Conservatives have fallen short despite lowering the total number of homes they were trying to build each year and adding long-term care beds into the number of new homes.
Asked about the failure to build, Ford said the “10 years isn’t up yet” to hit the 1.5 million homes target.
Other parties have pitched several of their ideas to build more housing which the Progressive Conservatives have not implemented.
The Ontario Liberals, NDP and Greens all pushed to allow fourplex homes to be built across the province — something the government considered before Ford cut it from legislation last year.
In the face of tariffs, the NDP is also considering trying to tie its longstanding pitch to build more public housing to domestic job creation.
Congestion
Addressing crippling congestion, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, is something all political parties will push to make part of the campaign.
Over the past year, the question of Highway 407 — a private toll expressway that runs across Toronto — has been central at Queen’s Park.
The Ontario NDP has already promised it would buy back the route and remove tolls, while the Progressive Conservatives have mulled the idea over. Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner also indicated he was interested in the plan.
Separately, Ford has pushed to remove bike lanes from three streets in Toronto and review the infrastructure in other cities. That’s something others — the Green Party in particular — have vocally opposed.
The issue of congestion itself ranks high on the list of voter priorities in and around Toronto.
An Ipsos poll conducted last year for the Toronto Region Board of Trade found 86 per cent of Toronto and Hamilton residents believe there is a “congestion crisis” in the region. That same study found 53 per cent of residents have considered moving away because of traffic.
Ford has also promised to build a tunnelled expressway under Highway 401 — a plan that would cost tens of billions of dollars and for which no formal study work has begun.
Government record
While Ford defended his government’s record on Tuesday and said it would take “two and a half hours” to list its achievements, Ontario’s other main parties are keen to point at decisions over the past few years.
The 95-year lease for a private spa to be built at Ontario Place is one decision in the crosshairs of the Liberals, Greens and NDP, along with the expansion of alcohol into corner stores which a recent watchdog report said had cost taxpayers more than $600 million.
The other parties are also keen to remind voters of Ford’s 2022 decision to remove protected land from Ontario’s Greenbelt. That controversial plan was eventually reversed by Ford after two cabinet ministers were forced to resign and is the subject of an RCMP investigation.
Whether it’s an issue that Marit Stiles, Bonnie Crombie or Mike Schreiner can get to the top of the agenda is yet to be seen.
Simpson said general public opinion trends suggest the Greenbelt decision could get lost during the upcoming election.
“We know the number one issue for Ontarians is housing and this is one area where the premier — for better or worse — has taken some action, trying to expand into the Greenbelt,” he said.
“And just to put that in perspective, climate change is the number 10 issue. So while he has been receiving flack in some quarters for taking that action if the vast majority of Ontarians would want to see progress on housing and that’s his solution, they’re more or less on board.”